LAHORE, October 28, 2026: Pakistan’s cement industry is expected to witness a marginal decline in domestic sales during October 2026, as rising cement prices, higher transportation costs and political uncertainty in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa weigh on demand, according to the latest research report released by Topline Securities.
The brokerage house estimates that local cement dispatches will decline by 1% year-on-year to 3.95 million tonnes in October 2026, compared with 3.99 million tonnes during the corresponding month last year.
Despite the anticipated slowdown, the sector is expected to record a 4% month-on-month improvement in domestic dispatches, suggesting some recovery in construction-related demand.
According to Topline Securities’ research report dated October 28, total cement dispatches, including exports, are projected to reach approximately 4.73 million tonnes during October, representing a 1% annual decline but a 2% increase compared with September 2026.
Cement Prices Rise 15% As Construction Costs Increase
One of the most significant developments highlighted in the report is the sharp increase in cement prices across Pakistan.
Average retail cement prices have risen by approximately 15% year-on-year, reaching Rs1,604 per bag in October 2026, compared with Rs1,404 per bag during October 2025.
The increase represents an additional cost of Rs200 per bag for consumers and construction businesses.
According to the research, higher fuel and transportation expenses have been the principal factors behind the increase in retail prices.
Data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics indicates that cement prices have also increased by approximately 2% to 4% on a month-on-month basis.
The sustained increase in prices is adding pressure to construction costs, particularly for residential projects and other price-sensitive construction activities.
Political Uncertainty And Higher Prices Affect Northern Markets
The northern region, which accounts for the majority of Pakistan’s domestic cement consumption, is expected to experience a 1% year-on-year decline in dispatches.
Topline Securities projects northern domestic sales at approximately 3.36 million tonnes in October 2026, compared with 3.39 million tonnes during October last year.
The report attributes the slowdown partly to political uncertainty in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during the first week of October, alongside weaker demand resulting from higher cement prices.
However, the northern market is expected to record a 6% month-on-month improvement.
Average daily cement sales in the northern region remained between 100,000 and 106,000 tonnes during the first two weeks of October before increasing to approximately 117,000 tonnes per day during the third week.
Meanwhile, southern domestic dispatches are expected to decline by 1% year-on-year to approximately 590,000 tonnes.
On a monthly basis, southern dispatches are projected to decrease by 5%, indicating relatively weaker demand conditions compared with the northern market.
Cement Exports Expected To Decline 3%
Pakistan’s cement exports are also expected to remain under pressure during October.
According to Topline Securities, export dispatches are projected to decline by 3% year-on-year to approximately 770,000 tonnes, compared with 800,000 tonnes in October 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, exports are expected to fall by 7%.
The projected reduction in export volumes comes as the industry continues to navigate challenging market conditions.
During the first four months of FY27, cumulative cement exports are expected to reach approximately 3.07 million tonnes, representing a 9% decline from 3.39 million tonnes during the corresponding period of the previous financial year.
Domestic Cement Sales Show 5% Growth During First Four Months
Despite the anticipated decline in October, the overall performance of Pakistan’s domestic cement market during the first four months of FY27 remains positive.
Topline Securities expects cumulative domestic dispatches to increase by 5% year-on-year to approximately 14.80 million tonnes, compared with 14.06 million tonnes during the same period last year.
Northern domestic dispatches are projected to increase by 5% to 12.31 million tonnes, while southern dispatches are expected to grow by 9% to approximately 2.50 million tonnes.
Total cement dispatches, including exports, are estimated to reach 17.87 million tonnes during July–October FY27, compared with 17.45 million tonnes in the corresponding period of FY26, reflecting an increase of 2%.
The figures suggest that improving domestic consumption is helping offset the weakness in export markets.
Lucky Cement, Bestway And Fauji Cement Expected To Record Growth
The company-wise projections reveal varying performances among Pakistan’s leading cement manufacturers.
Lucky Cement is expected to record total dispatches of approximately 940,182 tonnes in October 2026, representing a 4% year-on-year increase.
Its domestic sales are projected to increase by 3%, while exports are expected to rise by 5%.
Bestway Cement is expected to register stronger growth, with total dispatches increasing by 9% year-on-year to approximately 709,184 tonnes.
Its domestic dispatches are projected to rise by 11%.
Fauji Cement is also expected to perform positively, with total dispatches increasing by 5% to approximately 536,994 tonnes. Its domestic sales are forecast to grow by 15%.
DG Khan Cement is projected to record total dispatches of approximately 544,816 tonnes, reflecting a 2% annual increase.
Interestingly, the company’s exports are expected to increase by 35%, even as its domestic dispatches are projected to decline by 11%.
Attock Cement is expected to record a 21% increase in domestic dispatches, although its overall sales are projected to decline by 8%, primarily reflecting weaker exports.
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Maple Leaf, Cherat And Pioneer Face Slower Dispatches
Not all major cement manufacturers are expected to benefit from improving domestic demand.
Maple Leaf Cement’s total dispatches are projected to decline by 8% year-on-year to approximately 395,596 tonnes.
Its domestic dispatches are expected to fall by 3%, although monthly sales are projected to improve by 8%.
Cherat Cement is expected to experience a 14% decline in total dispatches, with domestic sales falling by 8%.
Pioneer Cement’s dispatches are projected to decrease by 4% year-on-year to approximately 231,471 tonnes.
Kohat Cement, meanwhile, is expected to maintain broadly stable total dispatches at approximately 269,040 tonnes, with domestic sales projected to increase by 8%.
The variation in company-level performance highlights differences in domestic demand, regional market exposure and export activity.
Industry Capacity Utilisation Expected At 56%
The research report also highlights continued underutilisation of Pakistan’s cement manufacturing capacity.
Industry-wide capacity utilisation is expected to reach approximately 56% in October 2026, compared with 57% in October 2025.
However, this represents an improvement from the 54% utilisation recorded in September 2026.
The figures indicate that a substantial proportion of the industry’s installed production capacity remains unused, despite the improvement in domestic dispatches during the current financial year.
Cement Industry Expected To Grow 8% In FY27
Looking ahead, Topline Securities maintains a positive outlook for Pakistan’s domestic cement market.
The brokerage house expects domestic cement dispatches to grow by approximately 8% during FY27.
The forecast indicates expectations of a broader recovery in local demand despite short-term challenges arising from higher cement prices, transportation expenses and regional disruptions.
The industry’s performance during the coming months will depend on whether domestic consumption continues to strengthen sufficiently to offset weaker exports and rising construction costs.
For now, the October projections present a mixed picture: modestly declining annual sales, improving monthly domestic dispatches, higher retail prices and positive growth expectations for the remainder of the financial year.