Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb announced Thursday that Pakistan could secure a “B+” sovereign credit rating by the end of FY27 or the first quarter of FY28, provided the government maintains its current trajectory of macroeconomic stability and structural reforms. However, he cautioned that it is premature to declare the ongoing $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Fund Facility (EFF) as the country’s final bailout.
Speaking at the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI) and the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in Karachi, Aurangzeb outlined the government’s economic projections, capital market expansion, and ongoing structural reforms.
Macroeconomic Indicators and Credit Upgrades
Aurangzeb projected economic growth of 4% for FY27, up from 3.7% in FY26. He expects the current account deficit to remain strictly within the initial target of 0–1% of GDP, despite international oil prices crossing $100 per barrel amid ongoing geopolitical crises in the Middle East.
Global rating agencies have upgraded Pakistan three times since April 2025. S&P Global Ratings upgraded the country to “B” with a stable outlook in July 2026, while Moody’s raised it to “B3” from “Caa1” in August. Aurangzeb noted that a B+ rating would represent the highest sovereign rating Pakistan has achieved in four decades, though the ultimate ambition is to break into the “BB” category.
He attributed the recent upgrades to a stabilized external economy, driven by record remittance inflows and foreign exchange reserves. As of September 2026, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reserves hit a record $21.44 billion, raising the import cover to the international benchmark of three months.
External Financing and the IMF
Addressing Pakistan’s reliance on multilateral lenders, Aurangzeb stated that a definitive decision on whether the current $7 billion EFF will be the last IMF program will be evaluated during FY27.
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“The country still needs to address short-term rollover and balance-of-payments requirements,” he noted, emphasizing the need to gradually reduce reliance on external financing.
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He cited the successful issuance of a $3 billion Eurobond as a critical step toward financial independence.
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To avoid returning to historical “boom-and-bust cycles,” he stressed that future economic growth must stem from productivity, investment, exports, and employment, rather than temporary liquidity injections and consumption-led expansion.
Capital Markets and the PSX Boom
Aurangzeb highlighted a massive expansion in capital market participation. The PSX investor base has more than doubled, growing from 321,144 in March 2024 to 656,218. In September 2026 alone, a record 25,281 new investors entered the market. The benchmark KSE-100 Index has concurrently surged from roughly 67,000 points in March 2024 to approximately 170,000 points.
Despite these headline gains, the Finance Minister stressed that index growth must translate into tangible capital formation for infrastructure, housing, and corporate innovation. He noted that 11 companies were listed in FY26—the highest in over two decades—with five additional IPOs already completed in Q1 FY27.
Housing Finance and Private Sector Execution
Speaking at the listing ceremony for the Naya Nazimabad Apartments REIT, Aurangzeb championed Real Estate Investment Trusts as a primary mechanism for mobilizing housing investments.
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Housing Pipeline: Under the Prime Minister’s Apna Ghar Programme, banks have financed Rs60 billion, with an additional approved pipeline of Rs340 billion awaiting developer disbursement.
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Private Sector Leadership: Aurangzeb stated the government will focus strictly on regulatory frameworks, leaving execution to the private sector. He pointed to a domestic consortium representing a $1.2 billion collective investment bidding for the privatization of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA).
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Foreign Investment: He confirmed rising international interest, including Turkish bids for electricity distribution companies (DISCOs), and US and Saudi interest in mining, technology, and refinery upgrades.
Structural Reforms Moving to Execution
The structural reform agenda has officially moved from design to execution. Aurangzeb reported that the number of active tax filers has crossed 5.7 million, a steep increase from 3.9 million last year and roughly 1.8 million in 2022.
The government’s primary focus moving forward includes leveraging data and digitization to strengthen tax administration, reforming state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and shifting bilateral economic relationships from foreign aid to direct trade and investment.