Oil prices climbed on Wednesday, positioning the market for significant monthly gains despite a recovery in Middle East crude supplies. The expiring November Brent contract rose 57 cents to $103.16 a barrel, while the more active December contract gained 94 cents to $97.10. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added 82 cents to reach $90.20. Brent is currently targeting a 14% monthly increase—its largest since July—while WTI is on track for a 4% rise.
The sustained price momentum is largely driven by stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran, alongside persistently tight global fuel markets. While Qatar expressed optimism for a diplomatic breakthrough, US President Donald Trump refuted reports suggesting he offered sanctions relief and access to frozen assets in exchange for Iran making concrete concessions on its nuclear program.
On the supply side, Saudi Arabia resumed oil tanker loadings from its Yanbu port after restarting operations on the East-West Pipeline. Gulf oil exports have seen a sharp rebound, doubling in September to reach 23.3 million barrels per day according to Goldman Sachs. JPMorgan corroborated this upward trend, noting the 10-day export average has stabilized at 20.5 million bpd. Despite this recovery in crude flows, analysts at MUFG warned that elevated freight costs and persistent product shortages will likely sustain broader market tightness.
The price spread between Brent and WTI recently expanded to a four-month high as traders monitored potential US restrictions on diesel exports. Such a ban could trigger a domestic oversupply and reduce crude processing by US refiners. To help lower global prices ahead of the November midterms, the White House has urged the EU to release emergency diesel reserves, while Trump is reportedly weighing the sale of red-dyed diesel as an alternative to an export ban.
Domestically, American Petroleum Institute data indicated an increase in US crude and gasoline inventories alongside a drop in distillates last week. This contrasts with expectations from analysts polled by Reuters, who anticipate across-the-board declines in the upcoming official data from the US Energy Information Administration