Pakistan’s listed refinery sector is set to post record-breaking first-quarter profits for fiscal year 2027, driven by a massive surge in refining margins and aggressive petroleum product upliftment. According to a newly released sector analysis by Topline Securities, aggregate earnings for Attock Refinery (ATRL), Pakistan Refinery (PRL), and National Refinery (NRL) are projected to skyrocket 11.1x year-on-year, reaching Rs38.9 billion.
The brokerage report attributes this unprecedented financial windfall to localized demand spikes linked to regional conflict dynamics, alongside a strict clampdown on cross-border fuel smuggling.
“The YoY increase is mainly driven by higher Gross Refinery Margins (GRMs), coupled with higher upliftment.”
Industry “Gross Refinery Margins” (GRMs) have established a formidable trajectory. Topline Securities projects average sector margins to hit US$27.6/bbl for the quarter, a staggering jump from the US$6.5/bbl recorded during the same period last year. The report notes that monthly margins hovered strictly above US$20/bbl throughout July and August before moderating to US$18.3/bbl in September.
Quarterly dynamics highlight significant “inventory gains” and the removal of prior-quarter one-off adjustments that historically suppressed baseline earnings. Total petroleum product upliftment reached 3,192k tons, marking a 37% increase year-on-year and a 16% sequential quarterly rise.
The Topline Securities report outlines distinct operational forecasts for the three major market players:
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Attock Refinery (ATRL): Analysts expect earnings of Rs163.8/share, reflecting a 12.0x year-on-year and 3.1x quarter-on-quarter expansion. Performance is anchored by margins of US$29.0/bbl and an assumed “High-Speed Diesel deemed duty” of 5%.
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Pakistan Refinery (PRL): Projected earnings stand at Rs15.7/share, up 9.7x year-on-year. This growth is directly supported by realized margins of US$26.1/bbl against previous lows of US$6.6/bbl, utilizing an HSD deemed duty calculation of 7.5%.
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National Refinery (NRL): Anticipated return to profitability with earnings of Rs144.3/share, overturning a strict fourth-quarter loss of Rs36.3/share. The Topline report highlights that operations benefited from margins of US$25.6/bbl and a stark reversal of prior inventory losses, alongside a projected finance cost of Rs2.7 billion (up 53% YoY).